Northwest Denver Market Statistics for October 2008

 We’re back again for a look at the sales data for Northwest Denver for the month of October. We should be up and running with the November statistics in about a week and finally be caught up.

Some general info regarding our statistics: all data is courtesy of Metrolist, Incorporated. Metrolist does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Aside from the disclaimer, we are looking at residential statistics for the DNW (Denver North West) market area within Metrolist’s system. Residential properties can be detached single family residences, duplexes, or triplexes. Anything with more than three units or a HOA (home owners association) isn’t going to be captured here.

Average Net Sales Price:

As you can see below, the average sales price is trending downward for the last few months. While it is typical for this time of the year to see the average price drop, we are definitely down year over year from October 2007. As we’ve discussed on the blog previously, our local market is being brought down by the number of sub $100,000 properties being sold by the banks. As you can see in the October 2008 sold properties list, there were 16 sold properties under $100,000 and another 4 sold properties between $100,000 and $110,000. With only 2 sold properties over $500,000 for October you can see where the average price starts to be affected. This doesn’t mean that every home in Northwest Denver is going to be worth less than what it was a year ago but it does make it difficult to pin down an accurate value for your home without the assistance of a professional knowledgeable in the area.

 Number of Properties Sold:

We’re continuing to follow the typical annual trend in this department. We’re actually right on track with our number of properties sold compared to October 2007. I take this as a sign of resilient market here in Northwest Denver. Some areas of the city are seeing prices decline and number of homes decline. I would expect to see the sales numbers dip a bit through December and start to pick up again in February.  

 Distribution of Properties Sold by Price Range:

 Again, this graph gives us a good visual to reinforce that the Northwest Denver market’s bread and butter continues to be the $250,000 to $350,000 price point. It will be interesting to watch the higher end of our market as we get moving into the first months of 2009. As is evident below, the $400,000+ market in DNW isn’t moving in terms of sales volume. I can say from experience that the problem may actually be on the supply side as much as anything. Most sellers at this price point aren’t willing to give it a go at the moment and have decided to put off listing until 2009.  

 Average Days on Market:

Here we have what may be the most interesting graph of the bunch for this month. Days on market (DOM) are way down from September. I have various theories on the cause and I would like to see if the trend continues into November’s market data (coming later this week). As mentioned above, many sellers have simply decided to pull their listings for the remainder of the year or wait to list until 2009. I have seen first hand that there is a very short supply of properly priced homes in reasonable condition across all the price points of the Northwest Denver market. As the supply side of the equation has dropped, the days on market has dropped accordingly. We have seen this ourselves with our latest listing selling in 15 days and I think it will continue for the next 60 days or so. This could be a great time to list if you’re sitting on the fence.

Some Additional Thoughts:

There is talk in the mainstream media of multiple programs designed to stimulate the national housing market for 2009. The one most people are covering would have the govenment use some portion of the $700 billion in bailout money to subsidize mortgage rates to around 4.5%. This plan would be for purchases only, not refinancing existing debt. There is also talk of a tax credit of up to $22,000 for purchasing a home in 2009. If either one of these programs was to be put into place in the near future we may see some serious competition for the few homes that are on the market.

While I haven’t put a graph together for this month’s statistics, I am planning on tracking inventory levels in some visual from from here on forward. Our inventory has dropped significantly from this time last year in both Northwest Denver and the rest of the Front Range (around 20% less than October 2007). We are at stable levels and the aforementioned housing stimulus actions may actually bring us back into a seller’s market in the not too distant future.